Track Record

Our track record of all recommendations, good and bad, are provided approximately one week following the live guidance. This is to allow anyone to see our advice, but to actually see it in real time, you have to subscribe.

As a new company in the farm commodity space, we can only stand on the guidance we’ve actually published to our subscribers. We will update this page approximately one week after issuing our advice. It will include every single call, good or bad, and the results. We don’t promise to be perfect. Our goal is a good market average over multiple crop years.

Winter Wheat Sales/Hedging

2024 Crop: We started our 2024 sales at the beginning of the May Black Sea rally. Pricing 25% around $6.10 (July 2024 futures) and scaling that up to 50-75% sold between $6.50 and $7.00. We later advised bringing sales to 90% at the tail end of that rally (with prices between $6.90 and $7.10).

2025 Crop: During that same rally we got a start on 2025 by pricing  5-10% of expected 2025 production via HTA and pair the sale with a sold* July ’25 $8.00 call (or something similar) collecting around 40 cents. This gave us a ~750 starting point on 2025 sales on 5-10%. If prices are over the $8.00 strike come expiration, we’ve got a sale of 5-10% at today’s futures price + another 5-10% at the $8.00 mark.

Soybean Sales/Hedging

2024 Crop: During the May rally we advised pricing (Nov 2024 futures) 10% of expected new crop production and pairing the sale with a sold* Nov 1300 call bringing in another 35-40 cents. This gives us 10% priced at nearly 1250 or, if prices are over 1300 come expiration, 20% priced at around a 1255 average.

In late September / early October we issued another round of optional guidance to price excess bushels (or reduce the amount you put in storage) on the pop around $10.60 (Nov futures).

2025 Crop: So far we’ve only recommended that extremely risk adverse producers consider pricing some 2025 bushels (if profitable) on the late Sep / early October rally.

Corn Sales/Hedging

2024 Crop: During the May rally we recommended producers pick up at-the-money (or close) July short-dated new crop puts for around 15 cents on 50-100% of unpriced bushels. At the time Dec futures were around $5.00. It was too early in the growing season with less-than-exciting prices to sell a big percentage of bushels – but hedging the downside made sense to us at the time.

These puts ended up being in the money and became true futures hedges for unpriced 2024 corn. We suggest lifting these only as you sell the physical bushels the puts were originally protecting.

2025 Crop: Much like with soybeans, we recommended only highly risk-adverse producers consider pricing a small amount of 2025 corn (if profitable) on the late Sep / early October rally.

*All sold options should be done in a non-marginable cash grain account. You can set one up with us and keep your delivery locations open to allow us to shop basis at delivery.

 

 

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